In the 1950s, less than 20% of the Chinese people were urban dwellers, and by 2018, this percentage had soared to 59%, as per the World Urbanization Prospects 2018 report of the United Nations (UN). This has led to a massive rise in the number of automobiles on the roads of China, in part, making it the largest carbon emitter in the world. As a result, its government has been strongly encouraging the public to adopt electric vehicles (EV) by implementing stringent emission regulations and offering purchase subsidies and tax rebates.
P&S Intelligence says that the increasing urbanization level, which is expected to touch almost 70% by 2030, will drive the Chinese electric two-wheeler market from $7.7 billion in 2017 to $12.5 billion by 2025, at a 6.1% CAGR during 2018–2025 (forecast period). As per the Health Effects Institute and Tsinghua University, deaths in China due to high concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 (PM2.5) could touch 1.3 million by 2030, increasing by a massive 40% from 2013!
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On the basis of product, the Chinese electric bike market is bifurcated into motorcycle and scooter. Of these, the scooter bifurcation held the larger share during 2013–2017 (historical period),owing to their lower purchase costs and more models that are available for purchase compared to motorcycles. Moreover, with the growth in the e-commerce and food and beverage industries, delivery companies are rapidly incorporating electric scooters into their fleet. Such vehicles have fewer moving parts and a simpler drivetrain than their internal combustion engine (ICE) variants, which makes them cheaper to operate and maintain.
Other reasons for the rising demand for Li-ion batteries in the Chinese electric scooters and motorcycles market are their higher energy density, which enables a longer driving range. Since one of the major factors that make many opt out of buying EVs is their short driving range, improved Li-ion batteries are expected to put an end to their hesitations. In addition, the prices of these batteries have reduced significantly in recent years, thus making EVs cost-effective for the masses. Other advantages of Li-ion batteries are their smaller size, ability to be charged up to 2,000 times compared to 400 cycles for SLA batteries, longer self-discharge periods, and faster charging ability.
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Hence, with government efforts to address the problem of air pollution, which is directly linked tourbanization, as well as the advancements in the battery technology, the adoption of electric two-wheelers will keep rising in China.
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